Analysis of Wind Conditions by Using a Complex of Higher Frequency Forecast and Satellite Data during the Flooding Period on February 3, 2008 in Saint Petersburg

M. V. Bukharov, V. M. Losev, V. M. Bukharov, N. S. Mironova, and E. A. Sizenova

A new approach to estimating wind conditions over the Gulf of Finland aquatorium during the flood event observed on February 3, 2008 is considered in this paper. This approach is based on joint assimilation of the higher frequency model output data and measurements obtained from a geostationary satellite. High accuracy of the computed current values of the maximum wind speed and direction has been noted. To provide the advanced flood warning, an adapted methodology based on the regional NWP model hourly data only has been applied. It was found that computed dynamics of changes in expected values of wind speed and direction over the east part of the Gulf of Finland aquatorium well coheres with the actual dynamics of the flood height. Profitability of the developed maps for analysis and forecasting of wind conditions over the sea areas where wind observations are unavailable.

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