Methodology of Assessing Interannual Dynamics of Bioclimatic Potential under Climate Change Conditions

E. K. Zoidze, L. I. Ovcharenko, and O. V. Chub

Scientific and methodological issues of assessing interannual variability of bioclimatic potential (BCP) in the Russian Federation are under consideration; mathematical models, technology of assessing the BCP from the multiyear mean data and individual years are presented. The calculations and assessments of the BCP and its components are performed by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation from the multiyear mean data and individual years over the period of 1997–2006. It is shown that in several constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the BCP for each year of a 10-year period of the BCP was either below or above its multiyear mean. It is also shown that in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the deficiency of thermal resources is observed, some increase in the BCP due to this factor is observed, however, it has not yet reached such values, which would not limit the effective use of other constituents and the BCP as a whole.