The Joint Use of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches to the Computation of Maximum Runoff Characteristics

L. S. Kuchment and A. N. Gelfan

The method of the plotting of probabilistic distributions of maximum runoff characteristics on the base of the dynamic-stochastic model of the river runoff formation, enabling to take account of the changes in runoff formation conditions caused by the anthropogenic activity at the river catchment, is described. To approximate the plotted distributions, it is proposed to use Johnson distribution where one of parameters is assumed to be equal to the deterministic estimate of the limiting value of the runoff characteristic. It is assumed that such an approach will increase the accuracy of the determination of the runoff values of small exceedance probabilities. The potential of the proposed method is shown by the example of determination of probabilistic characteristics of the River Vyatka maximum runoff.

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