Medium-range Forecast of Air Temperature and of Some Dangerous Phenomena Using the Technique of the Hydrometcenter of Russia

R. M. Vil’fand, P. P. Vasil’ev, E. L. Vasil’eva, G. K. Veselova, and I. A. Gorlach

The improved forecasting technique is presented of weather element computation developed at the Hydrometcenter of Russia for the medium-range forecasting on the basis of statistical interpretation of the results of integration of hydrodynamic atmospheric models. The methodology of numerical forecasting algorithms is described. The methods of forecasting the air temperature for ten-day periods and the extreme air temperature detailed for every day for the territory of Russia are realized on the basis of the weather element computation technique. According to the resolution of the Central Methodical Committee for Hydrometeorological and Heliogeophysical Forecasts, these methods are introduced into the operational practice as the basic ones. The examples of forecasts and the data on their accuracy are given. The approach is developed to the solution of the problem of the dangerous phenomena forecast (of anomalously cold and anomalously hot weather) with the earliness of 48–96 h within the frameworks of this technique.