Verification of Short- and Medium-range Precipitation Forecasts from the Ensemble Modeling System of the Hydrometcenter of Russia

A. Yu. Bundel’, E. D. Astakhova, I. A. Rozinkina, D. Yu. Alferov, and A. E. Semenov

Precipitation forecasts from short- and medium-range ensemble prediction system of the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation (Hydrometcenter of Russia) are verified. The verification system includes probabilistic and deterministic scores. The precipitation forecast quality is analyzed for different seasons and large-scale circulation types. Further development of ensemble modeling and verification at the Hydrometcenter of Russia is discussed.