Information Analysis of Ice Conditions in the Water Area for Determining the Monitoring Quality and Risk of Ice Formation Collision with Marine Structures
G. A. Lebedev and V. P. Tripol’nikov
A potential risk is considered for the marine structures caused by the collision with drifting ice formations (icebergs, stamukhas, and pack ice). An informational assessment is applied to the estimation of the ice threat risk. Informational entropy of the system of random influencing factors is assumed as a quantitative measure of uncertainty. It enables to estimate quantitatively the risks within the complex of various critical circumstances. The characteristics of the complex information system consisting of four elementary information systems with different variants of negative circumstances are considered and the information analysis of the risk category for the marine structures of the Barents Sea water area caused by the collision with icebergs is given. It is demonstrated that the reality of the threat of the collision of icebergs with marine structures is significantly lower because the probability of this event q = 1.5710–3 is much smaller than the probability of the fatal threat settled “by lot” p* = 0.0625.