A Local Forecasting Model of Formaldehyde Atmospheric Pollution in Tomsk Based on Statistical and Hydrodynamic Methods

T. S. Selegei, V. A. Shlychkov, A. A. Lezhenin, and V. M. Mal’bakhov

A hybrid statistical hydrodynamic model of the formaldehyde pollution forecasting adapted for the town of Tomsk is presented. A statistical component of the model gives the prognostic concentration averaged for the city and the detailing of the spatial distribution is based on the hydrodynamic method. The model tests based on the independent data demonstrated the accuracy of not less than 70%. The hydrodynamic block of the model enables to obtain the relative estimates of contribution of separate enterprises or groups of sources (including the motor vehicle emissions) to the total pollution of the atmosphere in the city.