Verification of Mesoscale Forecasts in the 2014 Olympic Games Region for the First Test Period. Part I: Verification Techniques and Polygonal Quality Assessments of the COSMO Model Forecasts

A. V. Murav’ev, A. Yu. Bundel’, D. B. Kiktev, D. V. Blinov, and A. V. Smirnov

Described is a system of verification of mesoscale hydrodynamic forecasts for the territory of Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic Games worked out within the framework of FROST-2014 international project. A technological line comprises the observational and model output databases, the computing verification complex, and the optional program aids for aggregation and visualization of products. The METv4.0 verification complex developed in cooperation with forecasting and research centers of the USA is used as a core. The effectiveness of the verification system is demonstrated with the COSMO model products for the period of December 1, 2011–March 31, 2012. Preliminary assessments of the model potential in forecasting the surface air temperature, the velocity of the scalar wind, and the sea-level air pressure are made with the quality score aggregation over the selected polygons of verification.

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