The Taiga Tick Ixodes persulcatus: Propagation under Climate Change Conditions in the 21st Century

I. O. Popov and V. V. Yasyukevich

The contemporary climatic habitat of the taiga tick, the dangerous carrier of tick-borne en¬cephalitis and Lyme disease, is computed using the model. The expected climate changes will cause the reduction of the climatic habitat of Ixodes persulcatus in its western part and the expansion in the north¬ern and eastern directions. By the late 21st century, this species can inhabit almost the whole north of the European part of Russia and the most part of Siberia up to 70° N. At the same time, I. persulcatus will disappear from Baltic countries, Belarus, the northern part of Ukraine, and the western areas of Russia. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till 2040 suggest climate changes that will affect the location of climatic habttat approximately at the same scale. The differences will start being manifested in 2041–2060 and will become the most pronounced in the last 20 years of the 21st century. Expected cli¬mate changes will favor the significant expansion of the climatic habitat of the taiga tick in the 21st cen¬tury and the potential formation of the zones of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease in the regions, where these diseases are not currently observed.