POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGES IN EUROPEAN RUSSIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES BY THE LATE 21st CENTURY: CALCULATION WITH THE MGO REGIONAL MODEL

I. M. Shkolnik, V. P. Meleshko, and V. M. Kattsov

Possible climate changes over European Russia in the 21st century are calculated with the MGO regional climate model with a resolution of 50 km. The IPCC scenario B2 is used. Changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and runoff are analyzed for different regions of European Russia. Particular attention is given to the evolution of extreme regimes. It is shown that in the 21st century the changes in mean daily temperature decrease in the wintertime mainly due to the reduced number of cases where the mean daily temperature is extremely low. The variability of mean daily temperature in summer increases in the south of Russia, in the Ukraine, in Kazakhstan, and in the Mediterranean mainly due to the increased frequency of very high temperatures. Against the background of the mean increase in winter precipitation, its variability increases significantly over the entire territory of European Russia. The variability of summer precipitation increases in the northern and central regions of European Russia as a result of the increased frequency of very small and very large daily precipitation totals, at a reduced frequency of moderate precipitation. In southern Russia and in Eastern Europe, the variability of mean daily precipitation generally decreases.