EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FOREST FIRE DANGER IN RUSSIAN FORESTS UNDER CLIMATE WARMING IN THE 21st CENTURY

S. P. Malevskii-Malevich, E. K. Molkentin, E. D. Nadezhina, and O. B. Shklyarevich

An approach to the problem of wildfire risk change in Russia in the 21st century is discussed. Observations in the central part of Russia and in Siberia are used for analysis. Statistical correlations between drought indices calculated from monthly sums of temperature and precipitation and the frequency of the fire danger index are obtained. The potential fire danger change was estimated on the basis of monthly mean temperature and precipitation at regular grid points. The statistical structure was assumed to have no evolution under climate change. Monthly mean temperature and precipitation were obtained from global climate model ensemble data. The maximum increase in the number of fire risk days is observed near the southern boundary of the forest zone in European Russia and Eastern Siberia. In Baikal and Primorie regions, fire danger distributions in the 21st century are similar to those corresponding to the current climate conditions.