ESTIMATING QUALITY OF SIMULATION BY ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS OF CLIMATE IN THE EAST EUROPEAN PLAIN

P. A. Toropov

The quality of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulation of the contemporary climate in the East European Plain is estimated within the International Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Calculation results from 16 AGCMs were compared with the LEEMANS, NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF, GPCP, and JAEGER climate data. The quality of models simulating annual and seasonal mean temperatures, precipitation, and evaporation, their annual variations, and the Khromov continentality index and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient are estimated. A spatial scale is shown when a stationary error is characteristic of the models. The estimates obtained have shown that only three AGCM models, namely, CSIRO, GFDL, and UKMO, provided a more or less adequate simulation of the contemporary climate of European Russia. This means that it is not reasonable to use the whole AGCM ensemble for solving applied problems. Only the models that provide the best simulation of climate in the region under study should be chosen from a variety of available AGCMs. If there are several such models, it is logical to use them in the ensemble.