MODELING THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DYNAMICS OF ORGANIC CARBON IN ARABLE SOILS, CO2 EMISSION, AND AGROECOSYSTEM PRODUCTIVITY

O. D. Sirotenko, E. V. Abashina, and V. A. Romanenkov

A nonlinear physicostatistical model of the dynamics of organic carbon in arable soils of the Russian non-chernozem zone is proposed. The model makes it possible to evaluate the conditions of transformation of arable soils from a source into C—CO2 sink depending on climatic conditions, cultivation of agricultural crops, and physical characteristics of soils. The results of calculations for regions and republics of the RF non-chernozem zone are presented. Possible climate-related changes in the productivity of arable lands are estimated by 2010, 2030, and 2050. The average growth of primary biological agroecosystem productivity is estimated to attain 21% by 2050. It is shown that climate changes will promote the increase in the income component and the decrease in the output component of the carbon balance in the arable soils. As a result, a non-deficit balance of organic carbon and zero CO2 emission will be reached at lower resource consumption, thus promoting the increase in economic efficiency of agricultural production.

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