THE METHOD LONG-TERM FORECAST OF THE HEAT CONTENT OF A GROWING SEASON

V. M. Lebedeva

A method of forecasting characteristics of the heat content of a growing season is proposed. Dates of transition across 100ºC in spring and fall, cumulative temperatures above 10ºC, and the duration of a period with temperature above 10ºC are calculated using a synoptic-statistical method. Monthly mean values of the 500-hPa geopotential, Southern and North Atlantic Oscillation indices, and parameters of atmospheric centers of action are used as predictors. Verification of the forecasting method is carried out.

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