AN IMPROVED MODEL OF THE ASSESSMENT OF PERIODIC CHANGES IN CASPIAN SEA LEVEL AND WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS

A. V. Babkin

A mathematical model of the dynamics of the Caspian Sea area and level, evaporation from the surface, and outflow of waters to Kara-Bogaz Gol is developed. The lag time of oscillations of the sea characteristics with respect to water inflow and ratios of their amplitudes are calculated depending on the oscillation period. Observations of sea level and water inflow were approximated by periodic functions. Comparison of the results from the model and from analysis of the approximation of the time series allows the conclusion about the corresponding periodicities in the changes of the Caspian Sea level and water inflow.