ONE APPROACH TO INVESTIGATION OF UNFAVORABLE AGROCLIMATIC EVENTS UNDER CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

E. K. Zoidze

Scientific and methodological issues of establishing and maintaining both agroclimatological and operational agrometeorological monitoring of unfavorable agroclimatic events are discussed. Scientific and methodological aspects of developing a unified system to assess droughts in the Russian Federation from surface data are studied and some results obtained in the framework of the above system are presented. In particular, the results of agroclimatological monitoring for the probability of air droughts in two administrative areas of the Russian Federation for a 110-year period and for a number of ten-day periods with complex droughts for 1972—2000 are given. On the basis of the results obtained, it has been concluded that in the Volga region the increase of dryness is not observed. The paper also introduces scientific-methodological principles of an operational automated system for assessing droughts over ten-day periods and proposes some ways and ideas for estimating draught-related damage to agriculture.