INFLUENCE OF HORIZONTAL STRUCTURE DATA ACCURACY ON NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

S. A. Mashkovich and I. G. Veil

Within the framework of the model proposed in [4], a relationship is considered between the motion of a tropical cyclone (TC) and horizontal structure. In numerical experiments with real TC data, the maximum wind speed and the distance from the TC center to the maximum wind zone are varied. The results show that the TC tracks significantly differ from each other if these parameters change. The corresponding estimates are presented. The sensitivity of TC motion simulation to the parameters whose specification contains an element of uncertainty indicates that the ensemble forecasting approach is suitable. Examples and efficiency estimates of the application of this approach are given.

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