THE PROBLEM OF DANGEROUS ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE WITH THE EARTH'S CLIMATE SYSTEM

Yu. A. Izrael and I. M. Nazarov

The notion of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” is discussed. The necessity in a system of criteria of a dangerous anthropogenic interference with the Earth's climate system is substantiated. The general, conceptual solution to the problem is possible with the help of available data on the ongoing processes in the cause-effect chain of events: anthropogenic emission (sink) of greenhouse gases (GHG)–their build-up in the atmosphere–changes in the radiative properties of the atmosphere and other elements of the climate system–global climate changes–implications of these changes for ecosystems and economies. The quantitative assessments demand that scientific efforts be focused on theoretical investigations, comprising mathematical modeling based on monitoring data on components of the cause-effect chain. The investigations are to be carried out at both the global and regional levels. The levels of permissible climate change impacts on ecosystems, human health, and economies should be determined simultaneously and assessed at the scientific and social levels.

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