NATURE AND FORECASTING POSSIBILITY OF THE EL NINO/LA NINA PHENOMENON

A. L. Bondarenko and V. V. Zhmur

A new explanation for the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon is presented. To substantiate its development mechanism, data from literature sources are included along with the authors' previous results on Rossby waves and currents and on upwelling/downwelling; also, the equatorial Pacific current speed and direction and sea water temperature measurements, unique for their duration, reliability, and informativeness, are analyzed. It is shown that the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon can develop as a result of the combined effect of the coupled Rossby waves and large-scale currents in the regime of their synchronous forced relationship. The proposed explanation of the El Nino/La Nina formation is confirmed by a steady linear relationship between sea surface temperature and the half-year rms deviation of the oscillation amplitude of the Rossby wave current velocity. Possibilities of the phenomenon forecasting are considered.