ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE WITH THE HELP OF A SPACE—TIME ANALOG METHOD

O. D. Sirotenko and V. N. Pavlova

A method of agroclimatic analogs is suggested for assessing the climate change impact on agriculture. Future climatic conditions are assigned as global climate model scenarios. Agroclimatic conditions are characterized by cumulative temperatures above 10C, evaporation deficit, and the temperature of the coldest month of the year. Maps of agroclimatic analogs of future climatic conditions from the HadCM3 and GFDL scenarios are compiled. Modern analogs of the climate change scenarios shift from southwest to northeast in European Russia. Advantages and limitations of the method suggested are analyzed. Estimates of the climate change impact on agricultural productivity are presented.

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