POSSIBLE CHANGE OF ACTIVE-LAYER DEPTHS IN THE PERMAFROST REGIONS OF RUSSIA IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

S. P. Malevskii-Malevich, E. K. Molkentin, E. D. Nadezhina, T. V. Pavlova, and O. B. Shklyarevich

The variations in the calculated seasonal active-layers depths in the middle of the 21st century are analyzed for permafrost regions. The analysis is based on the ground heat transfer model. The input parameters of the model are the data of five global climate models recommended in the ACIA project for impact assessments. The five-model mean spatial distributions of active-layer depths in the permafrost zone of Russia are obtained. It is shown that the fields of absolute changes in active-layer depths in the middle of the 21st century are mostly homogeneous and the dependence on the choice of a global climate model is not very noticeable.