LONG-TERM BACKGROUND FORECAST OF ICE BREAKUP DATES IN EUROPEAN CIS TERRITORY

S. V. Borshch, B. M. Ginzburg, and N. D. Efremova

Anomalies in the annual fields of ice breakup dates in European CIS territory are represented by the first five components of their expansion in empirical orthogonal functions. It is shown that the space distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific in winter has strong effect on the field of ice breakup dates. A method is proposed for forecasting breakup dates taking into account SST and winter atmospheric circulation. Estimates of the forecast skill (by the anomaly sign ρ= 0.52 and by the error Q = 0.60) make it possible to prepare a preliminary forecast for the entire territory in early March.

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