FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS WITH A GRID ADAPTION MODEL

S. A. Mashkovich and I. G. Sitnikov

A continuous dynamic grid adaption (CDGA) technique is used for improving 72-h forecasts of large-scale meteorological fields and tropical cyclone tracks. Both cases revealed the increasing forecast accuracy. Sensitivity of cyclone motion forecasts to different versions of adaptive grids is evaluated. Analysis of track forecasts of typhoons Zeb and Babs in the western Pacific in October 1998 also showed the advantages of the CDGA technique. The outlooks of application of this technique within the framework of regional baroclinic models are considered.