EMPIRICAL METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACTS ON TOTAL OZONE

E. A. Zhadin

A simple empirical method is proposed for estimating a relative influence of anthropogenic factors and long-term natural changes in stratospheric dynamics on the ozone layer. The method is based on the strong correlation between interannual variations of total ozone and stratospheric angular momentum and consists in constructing a simple linear regression of these variables. A comparison of the reconstructed and actual total ozone anomalies has shown their good agreement on a global scale, including the behavior of the Antarctic ozone hole during 1979—1991. A relative influence of anthropogenic factors on the observed zonally averaged ozone trends did not exceed ~ 50%, with maximums of their impacts at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (March—August) and at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (August) during 1979—1991.