REPRESENTATION OF CATEGORICAL FORECASTS IN PROBABILITY FORM

V. G. Dmitriev

A formula is proposed for calculating probabilities of occurrence of actual values of hydrometeorological elements in specified intervals provided that the categorical forecast is known. The method represents categorical forecasts of continuous variables in probability form, which is of great practical importance. The theoretical statements are confirmed by numerical experiments with actual data. Formulas are derived for determining the mathematical expectation and variance of random variables with a density of distribution of the forecast errors. Emphasis is given to a qualitative analysis of parameters of the forecast error distribution density and to their estimation.

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