Possible Climate Change Impact on River Runoff in the Different Regions of the Globe

E. M. Gusev, O. N. Nasonova, E. E. Kovalev, and G. V. Aizel’

The possibility of assessing changes in river runoff till 2100 for a number of large river basins of the world for a wide range of natural conditions is investigated. The assessment is based on the SWAP (Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants) model using meteorological data as inputs which were simulated with different general atmosphere–ocean circulation models in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. The possible climatic changes in annual runoff for some rivers by the end of the 21st century are compared with the natural interannual variability of river runoff caused by weather noise.

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