River Runoff and Probabilistic Forecast of the Caspian Sea Level

M. V. Bolgov, E. A. Korobkina, M. D. Trubetskova, and I. A. Filippova

The main components of the Caspian Sea water balance and water level are assessed. Stochastic models of time series of the water balance components are proposed using morphometric dependences specified by creating and processing digital elevation models for the flooded areas. The sea level forecast is obtained by the method of simulation modeling based on algorithms for the generation of Markovian random sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distributions.