Modern Changes in Hydrological Regime and Water Supply in the Moscow Region

M. V. Bolgov, I. A. Filippova, and M. A. Kharlamov

The changes in the hydrological regime of rivers in the Moscow region occurred under global warming. It is expressed in the redistribution of runoff within a year: an increase in minimum runoff and a decrease in flood runoff. The analysis of the series of the inflow to the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs revealed stationarity disturbances in the studied series for the period of 1978–1980. This was followed by a change in the characteristics of runoff regulation carried out for water supply in the Moscow region. It is shown that the inflow changes led to the statistical heterogeneity of the series of regulation characteristics, including the total live storage and water deficiency. The Bayesian method is proposed for obtaining statistical characteristics of nonstationary series of the inflow and yield of the Moskvoretskaya system reservoirs.