On the Need to Reparametrize the OVATION Prime (2010) Auroral Precipitation Model

A. V. Nikolaev

The need to reparametrize the OVATION Prime (2010) empirical auroral precipitation model using the Russian polar cap index (PC index) is considered. For this purpose, the integrated auroral power of particle precipitation obtained from the Polar satellite data for the period from December 1996 to June 1998 is compared with the PC index and the Newell’s coupling function. The analysis revealed that the PC index at the time delays up to 5–20 minutes correlates with the magnitude of auroral power much better (the correlation coefficient R ~ 0.76–0.87) than the Newell’s coupling function (R ~ 0.46–0.82). Thus, for the purpose of nowcasting the zone of active particle precipitation, the PC index showed much higher scores, although the predicting abilities of the Newell’s coupling function for the time delays of more than 20 minutes remain the best.