The Role of Winter Flaw Polynyas in the Formation of Ice and Hydrologic Conditions in the Siberian Shelf Seas in the Summer Period

A. V. Popov, I. D. Karelin, and A. V. Rubchenya

This paper analyzes the influence of flaw polynyas of the seas of the Siberian shelf on the formation of ice conditions in summer based on the ten-day data on the areas of flaw polynyas for 1978–2002 obtained by satellite image processing. The results of forecasts of summer ice conditions in the seas of the Siberian shelf are presented. The correspondence between the forecasts and observed data is 94.7% on average. The interrelation of atmospheric and ice processes is shown for the case when winter atmospheric processes determine ice conditions for the following summer and fall.