Analysis of Changes in Air Temperature in Russia and Empirical Forecast for the First Quarter of the 21st Century

O. A. Anisimov, V. A. Lobanov, and S. A. Reneva

Changes in air temperature in administrative districts of the Russian Federation are studied. The in-regional homogeneity of modern climate changes is estimated based on several criteria for the first half of the 20th century and for the next period. The relation between regional changes in mean annual and seasonal temperatures and global air temperature is considered, and an empirical forecast for one or two decades is suggested to be made on its basis. Empirical regional forecasts of a rate of changes in mean annual air temperature are compared with the calculation results from five general circulation models.