Conditions for Formation and Short-range Forecasting of Severe Squalls

E. V. Vasil’ev, A. A. Alekseeva, and B. E. Peskov

A physical-statistical approach to the severe squall forecasting is considered. It is based on the output data of the regional hydrodynamic model of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. By using the multi-dimensional discriminant analysis of a chosen set of predictors, a number of relationships are developed for the severe squall prediction; estimates of forecasting efficiency are presented for these relationships on the developmental sample. Physical interpretation of the obtained relationships is given.