Interrelation of the Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over Eurasia to the Eliassen–Palm Flux Characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere

A. V. Murav’ev and Yu. D. Resnyanskii

Conditional averages of principal components of the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence variability are projected onto the daily precipitation amounts chart. The conditions of calculating the average values are determined by the dates classified in three equiprobable precipitation categories. The classification and calculation of characteristics are performed for the summer and winter seasons. Using the rotated principal component analysis, several regions are revealed of statistically significant interrelation between extreme precipitation and the first EP flux divergence variability modes, a simplified exploratory interpretation of interrelations is given and several recommendations are formulated for correcting seasonal forecasts of meteorological conditions with the use of results obtained.