Radiation Indices of Climate-Forming Factors and Their Estimates under Anthropogenic Climate Changes

I. L. Karol’, A. A. Kiselev, and V. A. Frol’kis

Predictions of expected climate changes are mainly based on the use of large climate models. In the results of these models, it is difficult sometimes to single out the effects and role of separate climate-forming factors. The estimates of such effects are needed for the activities on the mitigation of negative consequences of climate changes on various temporal and spatial scales. Therefore, the methods of computation and comparison of climate-forming factor indices such as the radiative forcing, global warming potential, climate forcing efficiency, et al. are of special importance. Presented is a brief review of indices of principal anthropogenic factors influencing the atmospheric radiation regime on global and local scales such as greenhouse gases, atmospheric aerosols, and radiative properties of the Earth’s surface. The rates of changes in these indices are assessed, as well as their contribution to the variations of climatic characteristics. The examples of these rates are given.