Present-Day Variations of the Minimum Runoff of the Volga Basin Rivers

M. V. Bolgov, E. A. Korobkina, M. D. Trubetskova, M. K. Filimonova, and I. A. Filippova

Carried out is the analysis of stationarity of minimum runoff series in summer and winter for the Volga basin rivers. Two conditionally homogeneous periods are singled out within the temporal variations of these characteristics, and the date of their change varies throughout the territory of the basin. The considerable rise in air temperature in winter on the whole territory of the Volga basin is demonstrated as a result of the analysis of meteorological parameters. The relationship between runoff variations and wintertime temperature variations is proposed for predicting the minimum runoff. The distribution of minimum values of runoff is computed using this dependence and the forecast method based on the sum of distributions.