A Method of Forecasting Severe Squalls

A. A. Alekseeva

Considered is the operational method of the automatic forecasting ofsevere squalls (in the gradations of 20-24 m/s and >25 m/s) implemented in the Hydrometcenter of Russia as well as the ways to improve it in order to reduce “false alarms.” The problem is solved by means of increasing the accuracy of forecasting surface humidity and taking additional account of the predictor of numerical identification of synoptic conditions favoring the formation of severe squalls. Presented are the exam¬ples of forecasts.