USING ENSEMBLES IN FORECASTING METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

A. V. Murav'ev, I. A. Kulikova, E. N. Kruglova, and V. D. Kaznacheeva

Generation of ensembles for different forecast periods is discussed. A simple formal scheme for ensemble construction on the basis of the equation of a non-autonomous equation is given. Results of the operational hydrodynamic-statistical long-range forecast scheme of the Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Center of the Russian Federation are analyzed. Several cases of ensemble forecasts are studied.