INFLUENCE OF THE MAJOR STRATOSPHERIC WARMING ON THE ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE IN 2002

P. N. Vargin

Analysis of daily variations of the total ozone, zonal wind, and eddy ozone fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere is conducted for August—October 1998 and 2002 in order to explain the unusual large increase of the total ozone over the Antarctic in 2002. It is shown that the unprecedented stratospheric warming at the end of September 2002 resulted in the disappearance of the dynamical polar barrier and in strong eddy ozone transport into the polar vortex from midlatitudes. These results and high correlations between the interannual variations of the total ozone and stratospheric circulation give evidence of a large role of long-term natural changes of the stratospheric dynamics in the observed ozone layer depletion together with anthropogenic impacts. Possible mechanisms of the generation of long-term atmospheric wave changes are discussed.