CASPIAN AND CLIMATE. 2. LARGE-SCALE CONNECTIONS BETWEEN CASPIAN LEVEL AND CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS

N. N. Ivashchenko, A. A. Kutalo, and D. M. Sonechkin

Multiscale analysis of the series of instrumental observations of Caspian level fluctuations in their connection with climate change has been carried out. The analysis does not confirm a one-to-one relation between multiyear level changes and current warming, which some researchers use as a basis of very-long-range forecasts of Caspian level dynamics. The well-known periods of Caspian level drop and rise in the 1930s—1940s and 1970s—1990s are confined to severe ENSO events in the 20th century, which, in turn, coincide with the end of the first phase of the current global warming and the beginning of a second phase. Using this relation in 1994, an assumption was made that the Caspian level rise will stop by the end of the 20th century. Observations in subsequent years confirmed this assumption.