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Category: Июль 2020

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in the Moscow Agglomeration

A. V. Kislov, L. I. Alekseeva, M. I. Varentsov, and P. I. Konstantinov

Based on monitoring data (surface observation network and satellites) and on the results of climate simulations with the COSMO-CLM and ENVI-MET models, the dynamics of the urban heat island (UHI) and wet/dry island and their 3D structure for the Moscow agglomeration are investigated. It is found that the Moscow UHI is maintained by the anthropogenic heat influx to the urban atmosphere. To some extent, UHI is self-induced due to the feedback mechanism (providing approximately 10% of the effect) between temperature and the downward flux of longwave radiation. The UHI creates a counterclockwise circulation of airflows. The UHI and its circulation system are logically considered a product of self-organization, when a meso-beta scale circulation system is generated under the influence of multiple actions of small (meso-gamma scale) impacts. The UHI is accompanied by the wet/dry island. The domed three-dimensional structure of the islands is disturbed under steady strong winds and is transformed into the plume structure. The interannual trend towards the UHI strengthening is noted. This determines the effect of the warming acceleration related to the global warming and an increase in the discomfort effects in the Moscow urban system. The intense heat waves (1972, 2002, and 2010) which caused catastrophic droughts and wildfires in the European part of Russia are the major factor of vulnerability of the Moscow economy and population. In addition, the influence of the anomalies is amplified by the urban environment.